US President Donald Trump had warned of a 48-hour deadline to Iran to open up the Straits of Hormuz, or else Iran was to be obliterated and the Iranian civilization was to have been thrown back to the stone ages. But, on April 8, it was announced that Trump has acceded to a ceasefire for two weeks.
Iran has been under war since February 28 by Israel/US with neighbouring Arab states as allies to Israel and US. Iran has been under thunderous attacks by Israel/US yet Iran has been resilient and attacked Israel by its missiles. There are reports of heavy damage inside Israel but due to media censorship its estimate cannot be counted. US most prestigious aircraft carriers USS Gerald R Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln have been shifted far away from Iran. Iran’s whole infrastructure of hospitals, bridges, universities, energy plants, petrochemical plants, water desalination plants etc have been under attack as well. Iran had totally blocked Straits of Hormuz, from where around one-fifth of the world oil passes through, which plummeted the oil prices across the world. No wonder after Trump’s deadline, the whole world stock markets came crashing down. Millions of lives were at stake. Millions were to die.
Why Did Trump Accept the Ceasefire?
Iran to be wiped out meant what? Obviously it meant US was ready to nuclear bomb Iran. This move had to be cleared by ‘officers in place’ with complete uniformity to command, which was there, after a spate of military generals were fired by US, even the Army Chief of Staff General Randy George was dislodged by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. But, US stopped in its ranks? There are two primary reasons for it:
The first was the belligerent tone adopted by Russia and China to the UN resolution brought by Bahrain against the Straits of Hormuz blockade by Iran, which was vetoed by both Russia and China! This set the ball rolling. The second was the simultaneous message from Russia and China alike, through backdoor diplomacy to US, that if US is to nuclear bomb Iran, in retaliation, Russia and China are to use their nuclear bombs on US. Israel and other states (involved in support of Ukraine against Russia), this rattled US, as Israel PM Netanyahu, had already prevailed over Trump, that if US desist, Israel would nuclear bomb Iran!
There are perhaps only two or three nations which are capable to nuclear bomb US inside. If Russia was to make use of it, it’s hypersonic missiles Sarmat and Avangard ICBMs were to take a maximum time of about 15 to 18 minutes, China to make it in 25 minutes and North Korea in half an hour, to reach US. All the three countries were up to make a final push against US. This is what baffled Trump or else US to have remained the same ill concerned even if millions of Iranians along with neighbouring countries like Qatar, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq and Afghanistan were to die, by the flow of radiations from of the nuclear bomb. The same retaliation was to have ensued on Israel as well.
The Failed Demands and Diplomatic Shift
It may be remembered that firstly there were 15 points offered by Trump to Iran to end the war (March 26) which Iran had rejected, and the now conferred 10 points were all a part of it! What was new in it? Trump had given the ultimate warning, he wanted an off-ramp too, to end the war, but catapulted after the direct messages from Russia and China! This changed the whole gambit. Apart from this China used its influence through Pakistan to make Iran to agree to it. This is what has led to US President JD Vance and Iran’s Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf to reach Islamabad on April 11.
Trump went on a complete rollback to what was proposed earlier that Iran was to dismantle its nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, a permanent commitment from Iran not to develop nuclear weapons, the immediate transfer and down-blending of all uranium stockpiles to 3.67 per cent, complete International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitoring, and an end to domestic enrichment. Establishment of a regional enrichment consortium that involves Iran, the United States, the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, under external supervision. On the military front, it was demanded that Iran limit the range and number of its ballistic missiles, as well as an end to support for regional armed groups, and a halt to strikes on energy infrastructure. Everything was shelved!
Trump has gone on record to acknowledge that US President China was responsible for bringing Iran to the ceasefire negotiating table. But, it was the direct threat from China that made it all happen. According to ABC, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi made 26 phone calls with his counterparts in Iran, Israel, Russia and Gulf countries. There is not an iota of doubt that if Russia and China were not to have stood by Iran, at the time of reckoning, Iran was to have been devastated by now, and there was no fanfare as such to have taken place in Pakistan.
China’s Broader Role and US Internal Pressures
China has been dealt with a body-blow by US in the case of kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro who was kidnapped by US, barely an hour later when China’s special envoy Qiu Xiaoqi had met him in Caracas. China had to stop US in its ranks. The ultimate advantage of US, to be across the Pacific Ocean, was to have been dismantled forever, if US was to have used the atom bomb against Iran. Apart from this, which made Trump, to withdraw, was the unprecedented move inside US Congress, when 50 senators, under 25th amendment, called for Trump’s removal, after his threat to Iran. Under this 25th amendment, if cabinet declares President to have become ‘insane’ then President has to step down. In that scenario, JD Vance, who had initially opposed the idea of war against Iran, was to have taken the centerstage with immediate effect.
What will be the outcome from Islamabad is all yet to unfold.
Note: The writer is a former UP State Information Commissioner and writes on international issues.
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