Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu was terribly miffed, by US and Iran, signing Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for 60 days in Switzerland, on June 22, to end the war, he chose to declare that Israel ought to become would not depend on US arms. US President Donald Trump, after Israel attacked Lebanon, rebuked him as “f***ing crazy” and that he “would be in prison if it weren’t for me”. Israel also declared that US military remove refueling aircrafts from its Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv to free up space for commercial passenger flights.
These outbursts can easily be construed as mere out of desperation as any political analyst can aver that Israel’s whole survival status, has depended solely and solely on the unwavering US support by all means. Israel is to go for polls in October and US for mid-term polls in November.
Within moments after MoU, Iran declared that US is set to release its $12 billion frozen funds. Trump has suggested the funds would be used to purchase American agricultural goods. Iran retorted its assets will be employed with absolute liberty. Soon, Iran targeted a Singapore-flagged commercial cargo oil ship Ever Lovely passing through the profited route ascribed by Iran. US in retaliation attacked multiple Iranian targets, including coastal radar sites and drone storage facilities.
The fragile MoU had started to take its beating. Israel, all the while, never ceased its attacks on Lebanon, a trigger point which Iran wanted to stop, for peace to prevail. The moot question is, in the given situation will peace prevail? Perhaps not, as soon new battle lines are to be drawn, small in estimates, and full blown, once the Israel and US polls are over.
“Fingers on the Trigger”
Iran has accused US of series of betrayals on many earlier occasions. Its Defense Minister , Brigadier General Majid Ebn al-Reza (Ibn Reza), on the on-going violations and volatility of developments has stated that Iran’s armed forces have their “fingers on the trigger” and will respond decisively to any breach of the regional ceasefire, while he spoke to his Qatari counterpart Minister of State for Defense Affairs, Sheikh Saoud, he expressed Iran’s deep distrust of the US , accusing it of failing to honor commitments.
He emphasized that while Iran trusts its regional neighbors, particularly Qatar, it is fully prepared to take necessary and proportionate action if the truce is violated. Qatar had played a pivotal role into the signing of MoU. Why has Iran started to train its latest advanced missiles, from inside the bunkers into open?
Donald Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner and Middle East special envoy Steve Witkoff are on a visit to Doha but Iran has refused to enter into any negotiations! Iran is totally in a preparatory mould and has put its missiles arsenal on a complete alert mode, this is what is perhaps, the most intriguing part, as signals from inside Iran, is that a new war is set to be thrust on Iran, towards which Iran has gone into a high-alert.
Iran is already in a scourge as US security personnel danced over its ouster from FIFA world cup, after its goal was disallowed, but Iran despite the heaviest odds, performed its best in US. Nevertheless, it is clear, that these on-negotiations are very likely to fall apart and that Pentagon is just buying time, before US is to make a renewed attack on Iran.
Given the kneejerk actions of Donald Trump, who can guarantee that tomorrow, Trump may come up to declare that negotiations have ended and a new start of war is to begin.
Israel has for decades sought US Presidents to attack Iran, much to Netanyahu dismay, but it is only Trump who went ahead with it. Trump has still two years in office, he wins the November mid-term polls or not, but skeptics believe that a new US President may not swallow the Iran pie, as easily as Trump has done it!
The Battle for the Strait of Hormuz
US has decided to use Strait of Hormuz, from where 20% of world oil tankers pass, under Iran, on which Iran wants to impose toll, jointly by Oman, but Oman has declared to not to support imposing mandatory transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, Oman has proposed voluntary charges for maritime and environmental services, this is what to drive a wedge between Iran and Oman.
US wants to establish a route hugging the Omani coast. Iran instead wants to settle its own permit system and designate routes, instructing all vessels to coordinate exclusively with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Iran’s elite military force. US is set to reject Iran’s assertive attempts to solely control over the chokepoints and charge transit tolls.
Obviously, this is all to snowball into an open conflagration any time soon, as US will definitely encourage oil tankers, through Strait of Hormuz, as an challenge to Iran, and therefore, the new war is soon to begin. But, this time around, if the all out war is to break, it might kickstart the proverbial third-world-war, as Europe and NATO supported Ukraine is on attacks on Russia with newly infused energy.
A Fragile Truce and Global Responses
Russia has stood firmly with Iran along with China. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, met Minister of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia Prince Faisal bin Farhan in Beijing on June 30, has assuaged the coming ‘spillout’ and calibrated a strategy to urge to ‘safeguard and implement the MoU and work for an early comprehensive agreement agreed by both the United States and Iran, accepted by regional countries, and welcomed by the international community’. He added the current ceasefire remains fragile, but talking is better than fighting, and dialogue is better than confrontation, in a message to Trump.
Iran is right now preparing to organize the funeral of its Supreme Leader Ayatullah Khamenie by mid of July, who killed by US, Iran has vowed to avenge his death. Will that mean Trump or Netanyahu as the targets? Netanyahu has also announced that Israel will again attack Iran, if needed. A new dangerous war seem to be coming.
The writer is a former UP State Information Commissioner and writes on international issues.
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