US President Donald Trump and Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu ‘joint-war’ on Iran started on February 28, corresponding to Ramzan, the eleventh, which is the ninth month of Islamic calendar. Hence, the new 9/11 has begun. Today has begun the 14th day of the war, and Iran has as yet stood to the mightiest army in the world. Iran has been able to nominate the son of its slain supreme leader Ayatullah Khamenie, son, Mujhtaba Khamenie, who has started to wean-out Israel Intelligence agency Mossad agents inside Iran. Dozens, including foreigners, have been caught on espionage charges. So, for Trump, who wanted a regime change, Khamenie Jr. is still to be there. If not hurt?
There is very little doubt that China had informed Iran, two-hours-five-minutes back, about Israel fighter jets attack, but the information was not passed-upon and Iran lost its supreme leader along with 49 top-military generals. Something reminiscent of the June 2025 war, when Israel had killed Iran’s top military brass in the first 18-hours of the 12-days conflict. Iran had refused to learn its lessons and continually has paid highest prizes for it.
The three prime targets of Donald Trump, has not yielded results. There is no regime change, the prime most objective, Iran’s command through new Khamenie is intact, no protests against regime could be engineered, unlike in December and January, the plan that after the regime change, the new government would put brakes on any military retaliation also got fizzled out, as Khamenie, who was the commander of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Iran’s elitist force, had de-centralized the command, to no more be guided by Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian. The second target was to dismantle Iran’s missile capabilities, which are on rampage, third was to close down Iran’s nuclear programme forever, is still not materialized yet.
Trump wanted to wrap-up war as quickly as possible but that has not happened. Iran has bombed 17 US bases in Gulf countries. Iran has locked Straits of Hormuz, from where around 20% of crude oil passes, which has resulted in hike of petrol prizes all across the world. War from Iran supported Hezbollah in Lebanon has also broken-out. There are conflicting reports of Netanyahu, his brother Iddo Netanyahu, Mossad Chief David Barnea to have been killed, the reports are not confirmed, but perhaps, whole of Israel has gone under bunkers. A total lockdown, a scene from the years of Covid-19 era, has overtaken the streets of Israel. Gulf nations are in utter panic. Iran has made it clear that it would attack US military bases and US affiliated targets, and not Gulf nations, and it has now dawned upon Gulf countries that US bases, inside their territories, were in fact not to safeguard them but to save Israel. US reputation, as a ‘security provider’, in Gulf has taken to the most severe beating!
There are no signs of Iran to relent to US or Israel. Both are being attacked, as both attack Iran too, in Israel there is a total ban on any reporting of the extent of damage from Iran. The first address by Khamenie Jr. has come, he has commanded Iran to bomb all US military bases across Gulf, sought friendship with Gulf nations but to make US leave their countries. This is the sign that Iran is to extend this war! Iran therefore is now not to sit back until US vacates Gulf nations, something which Russia and China would definitely love to see, but then, it may also see that finally US is to put boots on the ground.
US eminent journalist, Tucker Carlson, has hinted that ‘there will be another 9/11 to justify ground invasion as Trump’s latest narrative about “Iranian sleeper cells in the United States” appears less like a security warning and more like media groundwork for a false flag scenario 1.’ Would US do that? Israel desperately wishes so, but then, if there are casualties, which of course, there would be, will it be the final nuclear button?
One thing is increasingly getting clear that even if US is not to make its forces land in Iran, yet, if Iran is seen as winning the war, which according to US defence expert, John Mearsheimer, will make Iran enter into a remarkable situation. “If Israelis lose in Iran, they would be fully aware they lost, they will be fully aware they will have enraged the Iranian body populace. Right. They will be fully aware that Iran will nuclear weapons will be very very dangerous, from Israel’s perspective, and they would go to great lengths to prevent that, and if they can’t prevent it, through conventional means, then we get to a scenario, where they think about using nuclear weapons. As we know there is no state on the planet more ruthless, more murderous than the Israelis so the idea that they would use nuclear weapons is certainly plausible. It is a remarkable dangerous situation,’ he spoke to Middle East Monitor 2. The latest as per Wall Street Journal 3 is that Iran has destroyed five US air force refueling planes in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Ayatullah Khamenie had passed a religious decree that Iran would never test the nuclear bomb, but now his son, who has personally lost members of his family, is at the helm, and it is expected that Khamenie Jr. may change the nuclear decree and Iran, which is supposed to have processed around 64% of Uranium, may try to speed-up to become a nuclear state. Iran may be now is very close to make it become a weapon grade fissile material. It could largely save its enriched Uranium, from US/Israel bombing in June last. This eventuality is what Israel would be the last to see! There are very strong chances of Israel to nuke Iran, primarily due to Israel small size, and also that Israel knows there would not be an equal sized retaliation. Yet, there are possibilities that Iran, can use enriched Uranium as a radiation diffusion device, where-in the explosive may be wrapped around, and blown off to trigger radio-activity!
US top Ex. military general Douglas McGregor has also hinted that Netanyahu will use the bomb and will not inform Trump over it in a discussion with Tucker Carlson 4. US has called-in THAAD from South Korea. Leaving it vulnerable to North Korea. China is also keenly watching over Taiwan. Russia over Ukraine. What is to happen next cannot or may be can easily be anticipated.
Note: The writer is a former UP State Information Commissioner and writes on international issues.
References:
1- https://x.com/IRIran_Military/status/2032063052317651423
2- https://www.youtube.com/shorts/8rA64pKHw8M
4- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zL_9UJwLyk
