Today is the 29th day of US and Israel war on Iran. Almost four-weeks have gone by; Iran is undeterred and has attacked on US installations across the Gulf nations, engaged into providing air and military bases to attack Iran. Iran has attacked US military personnel holed up in buildings. There are reports of attacks on US bases in Iraq. A war in Lebanon has also broken out between Israel and Iran backed Hezbollah. Iran has blocked Straits of Hormuz, from where around 20% of world’s oil passes, resulting in oil prices to sky rocket and there were estimates that it may cross $200 per barrel. Until came a statement from US President Donald Trump to halt the war initially for five days and later for ten more days. The strategy is simple, Trump does not want the oil prices to plummet out of control, reorganize military and start the war again. This ‘pause’ announcement came after Trump was to obliterate entire electricity from Iran.
US Carrier Retreats Signal Desperation
Why was Trump to bomb whole electricity out of Iran, why cannot US army, with its entire wherewithal of navy might, comprising USS Abraham Lincoln, USS Gerald Ford- biggest aircraft careers had to retreat? USS Abraham Lincoln has been shifted to safer waters away from Red Sea and Gulf of Oman, obviously out of risks from Iran. Gerald Ford has been moved near the waters of Saudi Arabia port of Jeddah, so as to be outside the target range of Ansar-ul-Lah, supported by Iran in Yemen. There are signs of desperations from both US and Israel alike, as Iran has as yet not fielded. There are reports that Trump wants to bludgeon his army into Kharg Island and Iranian army is also ready to face it.
Ceasefire Talks and Iran’s Demands
Trump has also reportedly issued a 15 points agenda for ceasefire but Iran is also to have forwarded certain demands like all Iranian assets to be defreezed, no talks on Iran’s missile programme, US sanctions be lifted, as there are roughly 6 in 10 Americans who believe that US military action in Iran has “gone too far,” with about 8 in 10 Democrats and half of Republicans holding this view. Despite this all, there are wide spread speculations that Israel, with or without US consultation may go ahead to test its Samson doctrine that is to nuclear bomb Iran!
Russia’s Nuclear Warning Shifts the Balance
But, a new angle has purportedly also added, as Colonel Douglas Macgregor, who has been in the forefront of a campaign inside US to not to wage any war, has gone on record to state that Russia has delivered a stark warning to Israel: if even a single nuclear weapon is used in the Middle East, Moscow would respond with a nuclear strike on Israel itself ! This is what has now turned the entire tables as what was once seen as Israel’s ultimate strategic advantage is now being reframed as a catastrophic risk — a move that could trigger immediate retaliation rather than deterrence. The message, if true, signals that nuclear escalation is no longer a one-sided threat but a potential point of no return. This puts Israeli leadership in an extremely tight position. Any decision involving escalation toward Iran now carries unimaginable consequences, not just regionally, but globally. Even more striking is the suggestion that Washington may not have a clear response to such a scenario. If accurate, this moment represents one of the most volatile and dangerous turning points in the entire conflict.
Iran Eyes Nuclear Deterrent Amid Escalation Fears
Iran is now therefore to be on an equal footing. It may be also referred that after the June 2025, conflict between Israel and Iran, Russia’s senior official Vladimir Medvedev had pointed that there were nations ready to supply Iran with nuclear weapons, hence, what Macgregor has hinted holds a lot of possibility, except for the fact, that now Russia may by itself go ahead to bomb Israel. But, there is also something new churning-up in Iran? Iran parliamentarians are openly arguing that why cannot Iran by itself go ahead to test the nuclear bomb? The greatest reality is that nuclear bomb is the biggest deterrent to any self-defence. There can be no denial to it. Israel, has been, since a long time, an unofficial nuclear power.
Why cannot US attack North Korea? The answer lies in the fact that North Korea has a nuclear bomb. Late supreme leader of Iran Ayatullah Khamenie, had given a fatwa i.e. Islamic injunction, that Iran would not test a nuclear bomb, but with him gone, his son, Mujhtaba Khamenie, at the helm, may give a new fatwa to finally approve the testing of the bomb. If this is to happen, it is to make Iran sit on the negotiating table as ‘equal’, even if there are more liable sanctions, as Iran has a fifty-years experience of living under US sanctions! Moreover, Iran has also now asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) implementing a “toll booth” system, vetting ships and demanding fees for passage. This de facto chokehold will allow Iran to manage traffic in the vital oil route to help keep afloat its economy.
US Air Supremacy Under Threat
In the last few days, Iran has released footage of US prime fighter jets like F-15, F-18 and even F-35 to be under attack from Iran. This is suppose to rattle US as its unchallenged supremacy in the air has been under fire! Will US start the ground invasion? Iran test its nuclear bomb, Israel nuclear bomb Iran, Russia nuclear bomb Israel in retaliation? Perhaps, never has the world stood so close on the precipice of the end of the times.
Note:- The writer is a former UP State Information Commissioner and writes on international issues. The views given above are the personal views of the author. They do not necessarily reflect those of GlobalToday. The author alone is responsible for all claims or objections related to this article
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